January, 2008

On January 9, 2008, the Almond Industry Position Report was released and reported December 2007 shipments at 94.536 million pounds which is slightly over December 2006 shipments.  Year to date the 2007 crop shipments at 600 million pounds puts the industry at 114% of 2006 crop shipments.  Year to date crop receipts were reported at 1.314 billion pounds, based on 98% to 99% received indicates CASS 2007 Objective Estimate of 1.330 billion pounds is an accurate number.

The supply and demand for 2007 crop:

Carry in August 1, 2007                                      133,949,675

Crop Receipts based on CASS estimate           1,330,000,000

Total Supply                                                     1,424,049,675

Balance of 2007 Crop left to sell:                          413,098,505

View of the Market:

The market has been relatively quiet the past 30 days, which is typical this time of year.  The market has seen a little softening with offers out of California varying between $.05Lb and $.10LB, due to sellers trying to move their position prior to bloom.  Buyers will continue to purchase hand to mouth as they wait and see if January forward shipments pick up and if bloom weather will have an effect on the potential 2008 crop.  However, size will become an increasingly import issue in the months ahead and though pricing pressure might be expected on smaller kernels the 27/30’s and larger should maintain their value.