Nut News

January, 2010

Happy New Year and continued happy shipments . . . . .
Almond Industry Position report released earlier this week reported shipment number for December at 147,478,289 millions pounds compared to of 93,626,344 last year. This is a 36.5% increase over last December and year to date puts the 2009 crop season up 16%.  The industry has seen eleven straight months of shipping triple digits each setting a new shipping record with the only exception September 09.

Receipts year to date are reported at 1.327 million pounds, based on historical figures this would represent 95% of total receipts.   The 2009 crop will meet the NASS Objective estimate, and most likely exceed it by 20 to 30 million pounds.
Carry in August 1, 2009
413,734,352
Crop Receipts
1,350,000,000
(Receipts based on Objective Estimate)
(3% Loss and Exempt)
(   40,500,000)
Total Supply: 
1,723,234,352
Less shipment(s) year to date:
( 719,026,441)
Balance of 2009 Crop:
1,004,207,911

View of the Market:

December shipment report astonished sellers as well as buyers.  We closed our books went on holiday and knew shipments were going to continue on record pace.  However, few made this shipment prediction, especially just coming off a record November shipment number.

The market will find its level, and not so many months ago with a carry in of 400 million pounds, it was doubtful our industry could increase consumption enough to provide profitable returns to the growers.

Now with seven months left to go in this crop year campaign, assuming final receipts hit 1.375, and shipments reach 1.55 million pounds, 112% of last year would create a carry out of 200 million pounds.  Our industry must have 1.6 to 1.7 billion pound crop in order to feed this newfound consumption.  Buyers and sellers both agree consistent supply will lead to less price volatility and continued prosperity for our industry.

Post the release of the December position report, the market increased $. 20lb.  Today, Standards trading around $2.30lb and Nonpareil around $2.75 per pound.  Even at these new higher levels, California seems to be reluctant to sell.  Understandably so, commitments are higher than normal, and year to date industry is approximately 69% sold.  Strong shipments are anticipated once again in January and most major markets need to cover third and fourth quarter.



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Last Modified:  February 12, 2010
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