Carry in August 1, 2009	413,734,352
Crop Receipts	1,383,159,937
(Receipts based on Objective Estimate)
(3% Loss and Exempt)	(   41,194,798)
Total Supply:	1,735,327,709
Less shipment(s) year to date:	( 956,643,852)
Balance of 2009 Crop:	778,683,857

Bloom Update:
Bloom kicked off mid February, and just three days into bloom, warm dry days gave way to mostly cloudy, increasing rains to sometimes none stop rain for full 12 hour periods.  Ten days into bloom, one could safely say it seemed to be one of the poorest bloom seasons witnessed in recent memory.   A combination of inadequate chill hours, condensed bloom time as well as bee flight hours was certainly a contrast to the perfect bloom conditions we seen during 2008 when California set its record crop of 1.6 billion pounds, producing a record high yield per acre of 2,400lbs.

This year going into bloom the growing region had accumulated 90% of the long -term chill hours.  The mild and dry weather pattern combined with warmer days and cooler nights just prior to bloom slowed accumulation hours below average.  Across the valley, the minimal hours observed have been around 700 hours – almonds need 500-600 hours.  Inadequate chill hours are known to result in poor bloom, deformed leaves and lack of growth.

Bee hours as well seem to substantially off, looking at only the early variety of California’s top producing variety, bee flight hours this season was at an mere 53.25 hours compared to 84.68 for the 2008 crop.  Additionally, bee supply was adequate in 2008 with very good hive strength.  This year the state again witnessed a shortage in beehives due Colony disease.

Unfortunately, Mother Nature is not being very cooperative with the other almond growing regions of the world. Spain bloom time is essentially the same period as California. Spain as well as all Mediterranean-producing countries has been affected by rain and adverse weather conditions, snow reported in some areas of Portugal and earlier this week Spain.  On a more positive note Australia’s harvest is well under way and appear to be going fine.

View of the Market:

I believe we have just completed the slowest sales period of the crop year and entering the time when most areas of the world need to cover their almond requirements for the next few weeks and months.  Available almond supplies are limited and there is much uncertainty about the 2010 crop.  Sellers will be cautious with their offers until the market is more fluid and new crop is more predictable.  The supply and demand relationship for the remainder of the year appears to be in balance with prices stable to firm.