March, 2008

On April 8, 2008, the Almond Industry Position Report was released and reported March 2008 shipments at 91.025 million pounds which is over March 2006 shipments.  Year to date the 2007 crop shipments at 874.811 million pounds puts the industry at 114% of 2006 crop shipments.  Year to date crop receipts were reported at 1.378 billion pounds, placing crop receipts 20% above the 2006 crop.

The supply and demand for 2007 crop:

Carry in August 1, 2007                                      133,949,675
Crop Receipts                                                  1,377,560,448

Optimum weather conditions during and post bloom this year in California, caused market levels to reach a low of $1.54LB for Std 5%. Post the release of a large trader’s crop estimate of 1.29 earlier this month combined with strong shipment numbers, price levels rebounded $.05lb to $.10lb. New crop levels are similar to current crop for standards. However, in expectation of better sizes from next year’s crop, NPS 23/25 is being discounted compared to current crop.

In light of the falling dollar, almond prices are very reasonable, dare we say cheap. However, this fact alone will not be enough to sway sentiment over the next few weeks. Bulls hope now that cheap prices will encourage even stronger shipments. There is also talk as bloom recedes and nutlets emerge it may reveal that trees do need a rest after the bumper 2007 crop and that great bloom conditions do not necessarily mean another record crop. For now, however, there appear to be ample sellers not willing to take that bet by selling new crop.