Carry in August 1, 2009	413,734,352
Crop Receipts	1,400,385,639
(Receipts based on Objective Estimate)
(3% Loss and Exempt)	(   42,011,569)
Total Supply:	1,772,108,422
Less shipment(s) year to date:	( 1,172,569,980)
Balance of 2009 Crop:	599,538,442

NASS Acreage Report 2010 California Forecast:

April 30th NASS reported 2009 almond acreage is estimated at 810,000 acres, up 2 percent from the 2008 acreage of 794,000.  2009 bearing acres was increased from 710,000 acres to 720,000.  Preliminary bearing acreage for 2010 is estimated at 740,000 acres.
Based on above mentioned total receipts for 2009, and the new acreage of 720,000 acres, average yield per acre of 1,945lbs.

2010 California Forecast:

The initial 2010 California almond production was released on May 6th, at 1.53 billion pounds with above mentioned acreage report (740,000 acres) would equal average production of 2,068 lbs. per acre, which would represent at total increase in supply of 8.5% above last year’s revised production of 1.41 billion pounds.  We have had mild post bloom temperatures which the trees are growing well, in good condition,  with low insect pressure. 

Supply and Demand based on 1.5 billion pounds:

Carry in August 1, 2010 (Based on 110% 2008 shipments)	242,108,422
Estimated Crop Receipts	1,530,000,000
(Receipts YTD)
(3% Loss and Exempt)	(   45,900,000)
Total Supply:	1,726,208,422
Less Projected shipment (Same as 2009 shipments):	(1,530,000,000)
Projected Carry in into  2011 Crop:	242,108,422

Market Update:

Market has continued to trade very thin, as the market waited for further information to be released this month (Acreage, Forecast and Almond shipment report(s).) Prior to this report market was trading on an estimated 1.45 to 1.5 expected 2010 crop.  Once estimate was released and superseded expectation of the market, the already thin, softening market in combination of the April shipment report we seen a rapid decline in the market of $.10 to $.20lb in three short days.

Which poses the question for many WHY????

Shipments are on track to leave a carry in that will represent 15.8% of shipments.  This is almost half of last years carry in percentage which was 30%. Already certain sizes and varieties are very tight, need 27/30 or 30/32 good luck.  Not to mention California Blanchable material which made of the majority of the 2009 carry in.

This month’s shipment report conveyed that China is a 120,000 million pound market, this is a 61% increase in the last three years.  Even though reported reselling from Hong Kong has taken place, you cannot discount that China is now a major market. 

India stocks may be as low as they have been in awhile, shipments are -11% YTD, this could be substantiated by the increase in value added tax and this is expected to be resolved beginning of May.  If you will recall last year India purchased Australian Carmel Inshell that took the shine off transition 2008 crop California inshell shipments. Due to rain during harvest this year in Australia, their inshell quality is poor.  It is expected that shipment into India will rapidly catch up and exceed last year’s shipments.